This morning I was met with something that should be considered a terrible situation for a presidential campaign manager – a poll that states that a potential candidate for the presidency is considered unequipped to do the job by a little over 70% of the public. If this was about anyone other than Sarah Palin, I would assume that her advisers were either scanning the dismal job ads for their next gig, or cleaning their handguns in preparation for suicide. But, even this may not be the end of the line for her – sadly, it could be considered a “good” thing.

First, one must consider the fact that this poll also included the public opinion on government in general – two-thirds of Americans are dissatisfied or downright angry with how the government is working. Palin just came off delivering a speech to many of the “downright angry” folks, hanging on the question “How’s that hopey-changey stuff workin’ out for ya?”. Ironically enough, she’s pinning her future political aspirations on a different kind of “hope and change”, and is borrowing at least a few tricks from the Obama campaign of 2008, at least where playing up charisma is concerned.

Palin is a saleswoman – detractors could easily say that she’s pimping herself to the dissatisfied, stuck-in-the-middle, exasperated masses that are tired of business-as-usual politicking in much the same way Brown did in MA (let the arguments commence on which one started this “common man” frenzy, but please don’t forget Klein’s observation about Bill Clinton’s philandering.) The bottom line is that Palin has struck political “fool’s gold”, in that she has made appearing like she can genuinely empathize with the downtrodden an art form. What makes it so brilliant is that every time anyone calls her on the carpet for being too simplistic, and lacking substance, she can add fuel to that fire. If played right, it can be like that schoolyard taunt, “I’m rubber, you’re glue.” She’s not an insider, and that’s a good thing – or at least can be, for her. Broder bought it. It’s insane to think that no one else will.

How did we get to this point? Take another look at the 2008 presidential campaign, but from the perspective that historians 50 or 100 years from now might have on it. We were told repeatedly that it was an historical moment, and it definitely was. The Democrats took a huge gamble by allowing the party to end up with Obama and Hillary be the last two standing. If Bush had been even a little bit more popular on his way out, there’s a very good chance that we’d have McCain in the White House (assuming he had won the GOP nomination, of course.) Why? Primarily because the unpopularity of Bush caused voters to sway toward the Dems. Obama said what voters wanted to hear, to be sure. But the primary difference between him and Palin as candidates was intelligence – he’s smarter, but he didn’t have experience. If we weren’t so desperate, experience may very well have played a much bigger part in selecting the president. But other than being a nice way to spend some free time, analyzing this now is little more than Monday morning quarterbacking. Except for one thing – it is extremely relevant to consider that blind eye when it came to experience when considering the 2012 election.

Once voters do something like this once, it is foolish to think it will never happen again. So, sad but true, the fact that Obama made it into the White House at all is an indication that someone of Palin’s caliber could do the same. Call it a shift in priorities or voter behavior or whatever you like, but the bottom line is that competency and experience may not always be deciding factors for voters (not implying incompetency of Obama here, since I already stated that he far outweighs Palin in intelligence.)

Steve Benen’s words of caution are being echoed here. Be careful about Palin. While she is not necessarily “book smart”, she’s proven herself to be street smart. She learned very well from her previous opponents how to play a crowd. The groundwork is already there for her to be successful in 2012, in spite of what the polls say. Didn’t Governor Ed Rendell, and the late Congressman John Murtha both essentially say that Pennsylvania wouldn’t carry Obama because their constituents are racist? To this day, I still don’t know more than a handful of people in my town here that definitely voted for him – at least a couple thousand did from our township, but I’ve yet to meet any that are willing to admit it. And that is precisely how it could happen with Palin. She could become the candidate many vote for, but no one willingly admits to it publicly. It’s the vote that counts, folks. Will the public pay for it if anyone stops considering Palin dangerous? “You betcha!”